The Indianapolis Colts head to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday to face the Atlanta Falcons. The Colts have won five of their last six games and are in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the revolving door at quarterback continues for the 6-8 Falcons, who will go back to Taylor Heinicke this week after benching Desmond Ridder again.
NFL odds for this Week 16 matchup have flipped, with the Colts opening as 2-point road favorites before moving to be 1-point underdogs. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Colts vs. Falcons on Sunday, December 24.
Colts vs Falcons odds
Colts vs Falcons predictions
A big reason why the spread has jumped sides for this game is the fact that the Falcons have demoted Desmond Ridder for the second time this season. I’m not sure that Taylor Heinicke is much of an upgrade however, especially with this vanilla offense. Keep in mind that Heinicke got his shot earlier this season, didn’t look impressive, and promptly lost the job after suffering a minor hamstring injury.
The Falcons are also extremely banged up on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Stud right tackle Kaleb McGary has missed the last two weeks with a knee injury while Chris Lindstrom, Drew Dalman and Jake Matthews were all limited in practice on Thursday.
On defense, tackle Kentavius Street just joined fellow interior lineman Grady Jarrett on the IR, while two other starting linemen David Onyemata and Calais Campbell were limited in practice. Missing either of those two would seriously weaken a Falcons run defense that has been a strength of this unit.
The Colts have some injury concerns of their own with right tackle Braden Smith still unable to practice and RB Zack Moss picking up a forearm injury last week. However, there’s some encouraging news regarding wide-out Michael Pittman Jr. and Pro Bowl running back Jonathan Taylor who were full participants in practice on Thursday. Taylor has missed the last three games with a thumb injury and Pittman suffered a concussion after a nasty hit from Damontae Kazee on Saturday but both are trending in the right direction.
Even with those injury concerns, the Colts are still a slightly better team across the board. That starts with the QB position, where Gardner Minshew is solid if not spectacular. This is a team in the thick of the playoff hunt and they’ve gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games despite playing only two games at home during that span.
The Colts don’t stand out in any areas but they have fewer weaknesses than the Falcons, who are coming off a loss to the worst team in the league in the Panthers. I’ll go against the line movement and back the Colts to pull off another win here.
My best bet: Colts moneyline (+115 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Colts vs Falcons same-game parlay
Colts moneylineTyler Allgeier Over 8.5 rush attemptsE.J. Speed Over 4.5 solo tackles
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Taking the Colts moneyline in combination with the Over rush attempts for a Falcons running back creates a nice SGP multiplier.
Even with Heinicke under center, I’m expecting Atlanta to continue leaning on its ground game. After all, they run the ball at the third-highest rate in the league and Indy is vulnerable against the run, ranking 26th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game (127.4) and defensive rush success rate.
While Bijan Robinson is Atlanta’s most talented back, Tyler Allgeier continues to see plenty of work and has had at least nine carries in eight of his last 10 games while logging 14 carries last week.
After being a rotational piece for most of the year, E.J. Speed has logged more than 90% of Indy’s defensive snaps over his last three games. He had five solo tackles in that first contest before picking up six the following week, and last week he racked up nine solo stops against the Steelers.
Speed lives up to his name as a fast linebacker that can make hits sideline to sideline, but he’s also a very cerebral player that does a good job of diagnosing plays. Expect him to go Over 4.5 solo tackles against a run-heavy Falcons offense.
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